UNC Wilmington

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	245.0
Current RPI:	245
Expected SOS:	121
Current SOS:	121
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-6
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	312
Expected OOC SOS:	126

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	245.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Wilmington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	108-81	L	0%
11-18	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	88-84	W	100%
11-24	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	N	102-78	L	0%
11-25	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	N	79-70	L	0%
11-30	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	93-88	L	0%
12-10	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	97-84	L	0%
12-13	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	71-58	L	0%
12-17	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	84-90	L	0%
12-21	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	N	100-63	L	0%
12-22	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	N	80-75	L	0%
12-30	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	56-58	L	0%
1-2	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	107-87	W	100%
1-5	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	89-71	L	0%
1-7	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	96-76	L	0%
1-11	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	78-80	W	100%
1-13	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	77-81	L	0%
1-18	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	80-76	L	0%
1-20	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	73-71	W	100%
1-25	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	71-68	W	100%
1-27	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	81-84	L	0%
2-1	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	96-76	L	0%
2-3	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	107-100	L	0%
2-10	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	90-70	W	100%
2-13	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	62-61	L	0%
2-15	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	87-63	W	100%
2-17	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	74-88	L	0%
2-22	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	96-83	L	0%
2-24	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	82-83	W	100%
3-4	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	N	88-93	W	100%
3-5	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	N	79-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Wilmington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UNC Wilmington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UNC Wilmington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UNC Wilmington	CAA	26.52	26.52	28.46	28.46	-11.42	-11.42
Northeastern	CAA	6.06	6.06	65.52	65.52	1.88	1.88
Hofstra	CAA	5.92	5.92	62.96	62.96	1.53	1.53
College of Charleston	CAA	4.50	4.50	75.86	75.86	2.33	2.33
Delaware	CAA	4.47	4.47	34.48	34.48	-1.39	-1.39
Drexel	CAA	4.42	4.42	40.00	40.00	-0.88	-0.88
Elon	CAA	4.42	4.42	42.86	42.86	-0.63	-0.63
William & Mary	CAA	4.41	4.41	55.56	55.56	0.49	0.49
Towson	CAA	4.37	4.37	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
James Madison	CAA	4.36	4.36	27.59	27.59	-1.96	-1.96
Furman	SC	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.83	1.83	76.67	76.67	0.98	0.98
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.72	1.72	83.87	83.87	1.17	1.17
Valparaiso	MVC	1.72	1.72	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
East Carolina	Amer	1.70	1.70	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Campbell	BSth	1.69	1.69	48.15	48.15	-0.06	-0.06
Davidson	A10	1.67	1.67	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Howard	MEAC	1.67	1.67	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
LSU	SEC	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
The Citadel	SC	0.22	0.22	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Radford	BSth	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Western Carolina	SC	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.86	17.86	-0.10	-0.10
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	A10	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Wofford	SC	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	ACC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01